With baseball season right around the corner and the Orioles lacking any sort of hope for the 12th straight Opening Day, I figured a good way to depress myself would be to take a look at some teams who actually, you know, have a shot to make the playoff, which pretty much extends to the entire American League East except for my beloved O's. This year's AL East may be the best division in baseball history. By my estimation, 3 of the best 5 teams in the league reside in this division, which is going to make August at Camden Yards tons of fun.
I'll be doing this for each division, and then ending up with playoff and award predictions. Please, keep the applause to a dull roar.
1. Boston Red Sox
This pains me, so so deeply, but I have to admit that the Red Sox look to to be the class of the American League. A deep pitching staff and a well balanced offense should be enough even in the brutality of the East.
Biggest strength: Starting pitching. The trifecta of Beckett, Matsuzaka and Lester give Boston arguably the best top 3 in baseball. If Brad Penny can rebound from a few years of injury and John Smoltz actually comes back and is effective in July or August, no one else can match up with them.
Biggest Weakness: Catcher. Jason Varitek, while always insanenly overrated, was at one time an important cog in a championship team. Now, however, he is in steep decline both offensively and defensively. Not that this will make or break Boston, but Varitek could turn into quite the albatross late in the year.
Player to Watch: David Ortiz. After his first injury plagued year in Boston, Ortiz needs to rebound to give the Red Sox a legitimate power threat other than Jason Bay. I don't think we'll ever see the days of .320 and 40 homers again, but if he can hit 35 the Boston offense could be dynamic.
2. New York Yankees
Who says you can't buy a championship? Well, actually, the last 8 years sort of shows that, as the Yankees haven't won the World Series since 2000 and missed the playoffs last year for the first time since the time of Christ. The championship teams of the late '90's were built on home grown talent and shrewd free agent signings and trades. So, how do the Yankees try to get back to the top? By spending almost $500 million on free agents! Despite my general disgust at how they do things, the sheer amount of talent on this team should be enough to grab the wild card.
Biggest Strength: Power. The Yankees ripped every Baltimoreans heart out when they signed The Traitor (whose real name will not be uttered) and banking that he will hit 40 homers. Probably a decent bet, especially in that lineup. If A-Rod is really gonna be back by Mid-May, this offense is loaded.
Biggest Weakness: Age. While the trend in MLB has been to go younger, the Yankees have decided that age is real path to victory. Including A-Rod when he gets back, New York has 6 players over 30 in the every day lineup and at least 2 in the rotation. Also, CC Sabbathia (one of the big signings) is only 28 but has logged over 500 innings the last two years combined.
Player to Watch: AJ Burnett. For a guy who has made 30 starts just 3 times and won more than 12 games only once in his 10 year career, you probably wouldn't pick him to get an $80 million contract. Then again, you aren't the Yankee front office. Burnett is very talented, but extremely risky. Him living up to his billing might be the difference for this team.
3. Tampa Bay Rays
Last year's shocking World Series team is back and might actually be better. Unfortunately, it might take 95 wins to get into the playoffs again. They can certainly do it, as they may have the most talented roster in baseball, but can they keep it together for another full season?
Biggest Strength: Young talent. The Rays are loaded with young talent up and down the lineup. Longoria, Upton, Crawford, Pena, Shields, Kazmir, and so on and so forth. If the Rays can keep the core together, they will compete for the next 10 years.
Biggest Weakness: Pitching depth. With an uncertain closer spot and question marks at the back end of the rotation, this may be the only thing that keeps the Rays out of the AL East hunt. If Andy Sonnanstine can reproduce last year's numbers and David Price gets an early call-up, all bets are off.
Player to Watch: David Price. One of the most talented young pitchers in baseball, Price burst onto the scene in the playoffs last year. He will start the year in the minors, but if he gets called up quickly and pitches to his capability, he may be the most important player in the East.
4. Toronto Blue Jays
It looked for a while there like the Blue Jays would become what the Rays were last year. A young team with good arms, the Jays were poised to make their move. Unfortunately, injuries and performance issues have hampered their progress, and it seems unlikely they will be truly competitve in the division. Of course, they could probably win the NL West...
Biggest Strength: Roy Halladay. What else is there to say? Doc Halladay looked to be on a bit of a decline, but came back strong last year, posting one of the best strikeout ratios of his career. There isn't much after him in the rotation, but he's the kind of pitcher that ends losing streaks.
Biggest Weakness: The rest of the rotation. Jesse Litsch is a nice pitcher who won 13 games last year, but you can't rely on him to be a number 2 in this division. With a bunch of journeymen and rookies after him, it could be a long year in Toronto.
Player to Watch: Alex Rios. Rios is one of the most talented players in baseball but has yet to have that transcendant year. He is a guy with 30-30 ability, but only hit 15 home runs last year, down from 24 the year before. At 28, it's time to stop talking about potential and actually go out and put it all together.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Jesus. Christ. After a decade of futility (to put it mildly) this year might end up as one of the worst in terms of win-loss record. However, the team finally seems to have a long term plan and the necessary pieces to implement it. At the major league level in 09 though, this team is in for what looks like another 100 loss season. There are definite building blocks in Markakis, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters, with Matusz, Tillman, and Arrieta waiting in the wings. The biggest question: will enough fans care when they finally do get good?
Biggest Strength: Defense. The Orioles, despite my negativity, really do have one of the best defenses in baseball. They are strong all over the diamond (especially in the outfield) and that should ease some of the pressure off the pitching.
Biggest Weakness: Starting pitching. The O's have had some bad pitching staffs over the last decade, but man. The only established major league starter currently penciled into the rotation is Jeremy Guthrie, and he has looked absolutely terrible this Spring. Maybe Koji Uehara will be productive, but it is really a horror show after him. We might be seeing the young guys sooner than we hoped...
Player to Watch: Adam Jones. While Matt Wieters has gotten most of the attention so far, and justifiably so, Adam Jones is a guy who seems primed for a breakout. He was playing very well before he got hurt last year and has looked great so far this season. A 20-20 season really isn't out of the question, along with Gold Glove caliber defense.
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