Regardless of my unoriginal post title, there's no denying it: The Oscars are here. I'll wait for the excitement to die down. That didn't take long...
Seriously, though, the Oscars just ain't what they used to be. I've already opined that Hollywood is out of touch with most movie goers, and in many ways the Oscar selections this year prove it. The Best Picture nominees have only garnered about $190 million total at the box office, with Frost/Nixon and The Reader each making under $10 mil. For perspective, that is about half of what Indiana Jones made, and everyone (except me) hated it. I'm not saying that art has to sell to be great, but come on. No one cares about most of these films, with the exceptions of Slumdog (which I think is getting more media attention than popular support) and Benjamin Button. Not that these are bad films by any stretch (though Frost/Nixon is terribly overrated), but they just don't have the cachet that used to define the Oscars.
More disturbing, I think, is the recent trend of movies being made solely to win Oscars or at least get nominated. Last year avoided this trap, possibly because No Country for Old Men was such a fucking masterpiece, but we fell back in this year. By far the best example of this phenomenon in recent years is Crash. As a movie, Crash is good. If it were on Lifetime. During the day. And was made by students. In grade school. As a social statement, it ranges somewhere between white middle class kids wearing Che t-shirts and the media explaining black culture through the lens of Jeremiah Wright. It really is just an awful, awful movie. But it had a BIG THEME. RACISM IS BAD. AND WE SHOW THIS BY OVERACTING. DID YOU KNOW THAT SOME LA COPS DON'T LIKE BLACK PEOPLE? AND THAT SOMETIMES PEOPLE FROM ONE CULTURE DON'T UNDERSTAND PEOPLE FROM ANOTHER CULTURE? AND THAT IT'S ALL CONNECTED? Jesus, Crash sucks. But it hit all the Oscar g-spots: "hot" current events hook, oppression of some kind, big name stars in so-called unusual roles, and insider buzz (if it was a biopic, the entertainment media would have proclaimed it as the greatest movie ever made, and perhaps the greatest artistic triumph in Western civilization). I know that a stellar movie could be made about the themes that Crash butchers, but it probably couldn't be Hollywood'ized enough to get real attention. So, filmmakers go the easy route, tick off their Oscar checklist, and voila. "I'd like to thank the Academy..."
This year's crop is really no different, even if all the films nominated are far superior to Crash. Each one hits on at least two of the Oscar must-have's, except Slumdog, which actually falls into the Little Miss Sunshine and Juno "quirky outsider" category. What makes this year more interesting that most, though, is that the quirky outsider is the favorite for the first time. And while it was at best a very good film, it is decidedly un-Hollywood, and that's a damn good thing.
In the end, though, someone has to win that androgynous golden trophy. And since that is the case, it means I have to pick who I think will win. Bated breath, here we come:
Best Original Screenplay
What will win: Milk
What should win: Wall-E
Best Adapted Screenplay
What will win: Slumdog
What should win: Slumdog
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Taraji P Henson, Benjamin Button
Who should win: Taraji P Henson, Benjamin Button
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Who should win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Best Actress
Who will win: Kate Winslet, The Reader
Who should win: Meryl Streep, Doubt
Best Actor
Who will win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Who should win: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Best Director
Who will win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog
Who should win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog
Best Picture
What will win: Slumdog Millionaire
What should win: The Dark Knight. Kidding, Benjamin Button
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